Scream 4 Tracking To Hit $50M On First Weekend

We’re not trying to get your hopes up unrealistically, but box office tracking from Reel Source Inc. and various expert projections all peg Scream 4 to take in at least $50 million on its opening weekend ā€” and more than $100 million overall.

A reliable poster on the Box Office Mojo forums posted that Reel Source claimed the film was trending to hit “low 50s” its first Friday, Saturday and Sunday. (April 15’s other new release, Rio, is estimated to hit close to $35 million.) This means that Scream 4 could earn back its estimated $40 million production budget (not including advertising and distribution costs) its first weekend. Not too shabby.

The Numbers, an online box office data aggregator, says that, normally, by mid-April, the box office potential of the films being released tends to dry up as studios worry about the upcoming summer blockbusters. “However, this year, there are not one, but two [Scream 4 and opening-weekend pal Rio] films that have the potential to reach $100 million at the box office.”

While agreeing with (or possibly copying) Reel Source’s prediction of $50 million, The Numbers says the film has the potential to hit $105 million. “And if that does happen,” the site concludes, “this film will be the first in a second Scream trilogy to hit theaters.” (So we’ve heard.) makes a similar opening-weekend guess but is more optimistic in the long term with a $115-million total gross prediction.

To compare this third sequel to other slasher openings, board member KrissyKins posted the top five earners in the category (not adjusted for inflation) ā€” all of which Scream 4 will surpass if its opening is even slightly lower than projected:

1. Friday the 13th (2009) / Opening: $40,570,365 / Total: $65,002,019
2. Freddy Vs. Jason / Opening: $36,428,066 / Total: $82,622,655
3. Scream 3 / Opening: $34,713,342 / Total: $89,143,175
4. Scream 2 / Opening: $32,926,342 / Total: $101,363,301
5. A Nightmare on Elm Street (2010) / Opening: $32,902,299 / Total: $63,075,011 also has a neat (but possibly completely irrelevant) Twitter Webwatch table, which has the third Scream sequel solidly in the lead with regards to Twitter buzz. (Thanks to board member Liver Alone for pointing us in this direction.)

However, despite its $50-million prediction, The Numbers cautions against associating buzz with big returns. “While a lot of people are talking about Scream 4, many of them are saying the same thing: ‘Why?’ It’s been more than a decade since Scream 3 came out and that film wasn’t exactly a critical success. Plus it was the weakest installment at the box office, failing to crack $90 million despite having the best opening of the three films.”

I understand big buzz doesn’t equal a big return (just look at Sucker Punch‘s Twitter buzz ranking of No. 3 for a case in point), but I don’t believe it’s as negative as that. But we’ll just have to wait and see, won’t we?

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23 Responses to “ Scream 4 Tracking To Hit $50M On First Weekend ”

Reader Advisory: Comments may contain SCREAM 4 SPOILERS
  1. lol, people who are like “LOL ANOTHER ONE? REALLY? WOW~!” will even see it themselves. If the reviews turn out great then bam, that reels in a larger audience.

  2. My only hope is that Scream 4 earns more money than Scream 3… that’s all,

    But all the same time, this is the moment for the real fans of the saga.. how many times do you like to see Scream 4?? I said 4 times. hahahahaha

  3. I love the Scream films, but there is no way in hell this will make 50 mil opening weekend. Oh, but trust me…i would love to be proven wrong! LOL

    I’m thinking the average of 30-35 mil.

  4. I really want for this movie to do VERY well in the box office as well as critically. I’ve been following scream 4 since before neve and wes was signed on, so I’m OBSESSED. I bet it does better than any of the others considering all the hype. With that said I have a few off topic questions,
    1.) Is the “Wicked Scribe” person just one person or a couple different people?
    2.)Are you a guy or girl.
    That’s all lol. :)

  5. SO it will make more in one weekend than final destination 4 did overall in america, awesome, I hope we will get two more!

  6. Why? When Scream IV is mentioned and people ask why? I’ll tell you why. Because in all honesty Horror has been dry and boring for the past 3 years. We need a blast of energy and life like nobodies business. I think out of the last 15 horror flicks I’ve seen in the theater…at least half were just ok and several were just plain bad. The last two horror films to knock me outta my seat were “Let Me In” and Lars Von Trier’s “Antichrist”. So yes…we need not only a good horror film (S4) but we need something to get others to wale up and get some solid horror films on the screen.

  7. I meant “wake up”. Autofill is officially turned off.

  8. im pretty sure that it will open with 50 mil or more cause this movie trilogy is what started the slasher genre and took it to a whole new level

  9. Hi Cody. Um I’m a guy haha but we have several staff members on board here.

  10. Im not sure it will open that well, yet I feel if it is a quality work, it may gain more viewers as time goes on. Similar to the effect the first scream had.

  11. I can’t even fathom that Scream 4 will do badly. Not even for one second.

  12. I really hope Scre4m does amazing! I’m only 16, but these movies were the first things I remember seeing as a small child(still don’t know why my dad would let a 4-year-old see a Craven film!)I absolutely LOVED growing up watching them and am a huge huge fan. I can’t wait to see how they are going to freshen up the series with my generation! = )Midnight premiere? Oh yes!! = ) Go SCRE4M!!

  13. I think Scream 4 will be the best out of the series in its opening weekend. I think it can reach 50 million no problem. Ill be helping it reach that mark seeing as I’m going to see it one or two times its opening weekend lol and probably a few times after that.

    @ Lauren Your dad really let see scream when you were 4 lol my parents never would have done that. The first time i saw scream i was like 13. Scream 4 is actually the first one I’m able to see in theaters ha ha cant wait until April 15th.

  14. I think Scream 4 will do well in the box office because as @Matthew said, Scream 4 is actually the first one Iā€™m able to see in theaters. Not only me but many fans and newcomers as well, because many of us grew up watching the franchise in old VHS and we had no opportunity to see films at the cinema because of young age. It will be very exciting and nostalgic!

  15. I Know What You Did Last Summer was the 1st slasher I ever watched back in ’99. I was 14 and then I desperately searched for Scream and Scream 2 VHS before the release of Scream 3 in 2000. It’s the only one I saw in theaters with friends, and the experience was incredible (I said “Oh no ! She’s dead !” when Sydney was seemingly killed in the finale but my friends said to me “Don’t worry, she’ll survive.”, I remember it like if it was yesterday).
    Like I said before, we’ll see if the Scream series can go on in this century or if it definitely belongs to the past century. But even 11 years later, I think it will take in at least $ 40 million the opening weekend.

  16. I think the film has a built in audience which will account for most of the 50 million that Im sure SCRE4M will make. Everyone else will be new and since it’s a reboot, they wont feel like they had to have seen the other three. Plus the “scary” movies that have been released in the last year or so haven’t really afforded the experience that SCREAM does. No one has been able to duplicate SCREAM’s formula successfully. With this film being touted as the closest to the FIRST SCREAM (Which everyone loved) I think even the people who frowned upon Scream 3 will be back for more Ghostface. Not to mention we thought we closed that chapter in our lives and now Gake,Dewey and Sidney are back in the line of fire. I HAVE to know what happens….A midnight screening (a first for me with a horror film) only adds to the excitement I feel about this movie. It’s going to be a great week. :-)

  17. *GALE* ;-)

  18. My mother took me to see Scream in theaters…I was 6 years old. I question her parenting I’ve seen all of them in theaters so far (Part 2 twice in one day) and plan on seeing Scream 4 several times in theaters.

  19. No doubt about the money. Especially since movies are more expensive nowadays.

  20. Im so excited….going to the midnight showing…10 days!!!

  21. Just bought my tix for the midnight showing!!!

  22. Will slay er see you all at the theaters.

  23. Yikes, WAY off. only 19.5 mil.

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